Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon says “it’s almost certain” that the El Niño weather pattern that brought us the wet-and-cool last six months will give way this fall to its bizarro twin, La Niña.

Summer itself should not be that bad in Central Texas, according to most forecasts. But the unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific that characterize an El Niño are already fading and should soon dissipate. As to the next piece of the puzzle — what happens in the fall —  Nielsen-Gammon thinks unusually cool ocean temperatures are on the way in the fall.

“The tropical Pacific temperatures are almost certain to continue to decline,” Nielsen-Gammon said.

In other words, La Niña. And that probably means a return to hotter-and-drier-than-normal conditions. (Pacific ocean patterns are not the only meteorological phenomena that affect Central Texas weather, but they tend to play an outsize role during spring and fall.) The epic drought that gripped Texas for the better part of five years before finally breaking in the fall started with a La Niña.

Again, for emphasis:

That’s Central Texas, right in the midst of that “dry” zone.

Luckily, we’re still due for a few weeks more of wet weather, according to most forecasts. And the Highland Lakes, Central Texas’ main reservoirs, are just about full. If drought does settle in, Central Texas is in just about the best shape for it possible.

As for the El Niño, it’s been a weird one. Dubbed the Godzilla El Niño for its unusual intensity, it brought wetter-than-normal weather, which was expected. But it also brought higher-than-average temperatures to Texas, which is unusual, Nielsen-Gammon said.

Cold weather, he said, pretty much never showed up: lows only got down to 22 degrees in Abilene, 27 degrees in Dallas, 30 in San Antonio, 31 in urban Austin and 40 in Galveston.

“All of these were new records for mildness, with weather records going back for more than a century in most locations,” Nielsen-Gammon said.

The skies also swung between downpours and drought. The half-year between November and April was the seventh-wettest stretch of that length in the Texas records, which date back to 1895, Nielsen-Gammon said, despite a dry two months to start the year that sparked questions about whether El Niño was El Nada (as Friend of Weather Watch Michael Lyttle put it). The wet weather returned in spring, but that old saying about rain falling on the just and the unjust alike was not quite right. Many parts of Texas received double the average rainfall. But significantly less than average rainfall fell on the Panhandle, Coastal Bend and High Plains.

What is now happening to the El Nino? According to Nielsen-Gammon:

“A tongue of cooler-than-normal temperatures has been working its way eastward across the tropics just below the surface of the ocean, and it has now reached South America. Those cooler waters will continue to spread across the surface of the ocean as the warmer water moves westward, back toward New Guinea and Indonesia.

“What that means is that it still seems likely that temperatures will cool enough to reach La Niña territory by late summer or fall. The Climate Prediction Center rates the chances of a La Niña at about 75 percent. By next winter, if La Niña is in place, Texas is likely to experience a warm and dry winter.”

Farewell, then, El Niño. You filled our lakes, saturated our once-parched ground and made us break out our lawnmowers more often than we would like. For a time, all storms did truly bow to you.

This is one of those weekends when the sky could mess with a good time.

Numerous events of the kind usually held in late spring – the Untapped Festival, University of Texas softball, the high school state track and field championships, Jmblya 2016 Austin – will be under threat of thunderstorms. Saturday will actually be mostly sunny, but it also carries with it a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms and rain, according to the National Weather Service’s forecast on Friday night. By Saturday evening the weather should be mostly cloudy, with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Those odds of rain and thunderstorms rise to 50/50 on Sunday. Remember, a 50 percent chance of rain means that there are even odds that rain will fall on a given place during the 12-hour period.

(I’m giving a 20 percent chance of headlines along the lines of, “Rain doesn’t dampen the spirits of festival goers …”)

This has been a weird last six months — we miss you, Mark Murray! — and State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon says there is some evidence that Texas weather has gotten more extreme. But the severe weather that could hit Saturday is not out of character for Central Texas this time of year. May is the month with the most severe weather: thunderstorms, hail and tornadoes. And remember, Mercury is in retrograde, which could means this weekend is going to be unlucky or could mean absolutely nothing at all, depending on whether you believe astrologers or scientists.

Sick of the rain? Well, that’s understandable. The Highland Lakes, primary reservoirs in the Austin area, area nearly full, and the ground is saturated. But don’t get too used to it. Summer is probably also going to be mild. But this fall, when the El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific gives way to a La Niña, we could slip back to the days of the hot and dry.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhqT9XnsXuY&w=640&h=390]

In case you missed it, Los Angeles television station KTLA tried to break Twitter on Saturday, when a female meteorologist was basically told on air to cover up.

During the segment, a male co-host interrupted Liberté Chan offering her a sweater. He said — on air! — that the station was “getting a lot of emails” about her dress. She played along and later wrote a blog entry stating that the incident was not sexist.

The #sweatergate hashtag cropped up on Twitter along with a fair amount of outrage. The New York Times has written up what happened. The Washington Post’s deputy weather editor, Angela Fritz, wrote that it “exemplifies the unfortunate way that women in TV meteorology are treated.”

“Over in the ‘weather world,’ ” what happened “didn’t really come as a surprise,” Fritz wrote. Partly because of the station’s history of “apparent ‘bloopers'” and partly because of May sweeps, Fritz wonders if Saturday’s moment was staged, citing various examples and the station’s recent history.

“At the end of the day, these kinds of stunts simply make it that much harder for female meteorologists to do their jobs. And it’s already really hard,” Fritz wrote. “Women on TV endure an unending wave of verbal attacks for their appearance. They are sexually harassed and otherwise degraded via email and on social media.”

Fritz concluded by saying incidents paint “a bad image of women in the field — women who, on occasion, are required to communicate life-saving information to their viewers.”

In a little more than a week, the Atlantic hurricane season will start, stretching from June 1 to Nov. 30. Government officials are worried that people will not take it seriously enough — especially in places such as Central Texas.

A hurricane that makes landfall will not hit the Austin area, of course. But hurricanes that reach the Houston area or Louisiana coast do tend to send off tendrils that can soak Central Texas, exacerbating the ever-present risk of flooding in this region of rocky terrain, thin soils and a propensity for downpours.

This summer that risk has been further heightened by the last half-year of rainy weather. The soil is already saturated.

A week ago, officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tried to emphasize this point by holding a kickoff for Hurricane Awareness Week in San Antonio. Normally, such events happen in coastal communities. Why not keep the focus on the communities most at risk? Because San Antonio, like Austin, is prone to flash flooding, and sees that threat increased when hurricanes approach the coast.

“The inland flooding threat here is very significant,” said Dan Brown, a meteorologist and warning coordinator with the Miami-based National Hurricane Center.

Various forecasts are calling for a hurricane season that could bring the typical 12 named storms, or could bring significantly more than that. The official government forecast is coming out this week. But the federal weather officials in San Antonio last week brushed aside speculation about how active this hurricane season will be. They argue there is little correlation between the number of storms that appear in a season and the major question: whether one of those hurricanes will make landfall.

“Those (forecasts) have no bearing on whether (hurricanes) will make landfall or not,” said Steven Cooper, acting director of the National Weather Service’s southern region. “And it only takes one.”

Last year, he said, Tropical Storm Bill produced flooding hundreds of miles from Matagorda Island, where it made landfall.

Cooper also noted that hurricanes increase the risk of tornadoes. They are not generally a major threat in Central Texas. But in 1980s, Hurricane Aiden spun off storms as it began to dissipate, and one of those storms caused a tornado that hit what was then Robert Mueller Municipal Airport, according to the Weather Service. The tornado caused $250 million in damage.

The Weather Service and other government agencies offered the following advice to people to prepare for hurricanes (or other severe weather):

• Check your flood insurance. And then check that against the flood hazard information available through the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

• Create a family communication plan. Know how you’re all going to get ahold of one another, particularly if high winds knock out cell towers.

• Keep emergency supplies. That’s things like flashlights, batteries, bottled water, canned food. Remember, it doesn’t make you a survivalist unless you keep them in your fallout shelter.

• Remember that if you have pets, you will probably also have to care for their well-being.

• Know the evacuation routes in your community.

• Listen to local officials. And have a means, such as a NOAA weather radio, of doing so.

• Don’t panic.

El Niño is dead. Long live El Niño.

The weather pattern in the Pacific, characterized by unusually warm surface water near the equator, has dissipated as temperatures returned to normal, according to the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center.

In layman’s terms, “El Niño has ended,” said Bob Rose, an Austin-based meteorologist with the Lower Colorado River Authority.

Rose has particular reason to monitor El Niños. Central Texas tends to enter wetter-and-cooler-than-normal periods during El Niño. That often means more storms. This has been a wacky weather year: a wet fall, a historically dry start to the year, and then a wet and stormy spring. As Rose noted, the past 12 months have been the wettest May-to-May stretch in Camp Mabry’s history, with 59.61 inches recorded there. Thought El Niño has dissipated, most forecasters expect a few more storms — after all, May is by far the most severe-weather-prone period of the year here — before summer settles in.

At its peak, this El Niño was among the strongest on record. It quickly earned the nickname of “the Godzilla El Nino.” (I’m going to miss linking to that image.)

The Godzilla El Niño battled The Omega Block. It took a winter siesta. It delivered a storm during which a Houston forecaster threatened on air to “kick someone’s behind.” Though it is gone now, its influence endures. This summer will probably be mild by Central Texas standards, according to most forecasts.

Our luck will probably end this fall. Forecasters say there is a high probability that later this year we will enter La Niña, El Niño’s bizarro twin. That probably means a period of hotter-and-drier-than-normal weather. And Central Texas is naturally hot and dry.

And so, in memory of an El Niño that is now only that, please enjoy this final tribute:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8&w=640&h=390]

The first of what could be several lines of thunderstorms might arrive in Central Texas this evening. They are likely to bring heavy rain, which, this being “flash flood alley,” means we’ll probably be hearing various advisories from the National Weather Service.

But what do those mean?

Here is a handy-dandy chart, courtesy of the Weather Service:

Basically, an advisory means watch out for slick roads and similar issues. A watch means “watch out,” as flooding is possible in spots across a wide area. A warning means there is a good chance flooding is about to happen, or is already happening.

Meteorological vs. astronomical summer, per the NOAA. Please note: this is from 2013. Astronomical summer this year starts June 20.

Don’t let the gray skies and storms rolling through Central Texas fool you. Summer is here. Kind of.

Today is the start of “meteorological summer.” And with El Niño having faded away and Memorial Day weekend kicking off Central Texas boating season, maybe someday soon it’ll even feel like a Texas summer.

Or maybe full-on summer won’t really arrive until June 20. When summer begins. Kind of.

The difference is that meteorological summer is a calendar marker based on annual temperatures. It’s mainly used in — wait for it — meteorology.

June 20 is the start of astronomical summer this year. That marker is based on the relative positions of the Earth and sun. That has more to do with the length of days. It’s also the more commonly used marker.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

“People have used observable periodic natural phenomena to mark time for thousands of years. The natural rotation of the Earth around the sun forms the basis for the astronomical calendar, in which seasons are defined by two solstices and two equinoxes. Both the solstices and equinoxes are determined based on the Earth’s tilt and the sun’s alignment over the equator. The solstices mark the times when the sun’s annual path is farthest, north or south, from the Earth’s equator. The equinoxes mark the times when the sun passes directly above the equator. In the Northern Hemisphere, the summer solstice falls on or around June 21, the winter solstice on or around December 22, the vernal (spring) equinox on or around March 21, and the autumnal equinox on or around September 22.”

So don’t be fooled. Summer starts today. And later this month.

South and Central Texas are probably headed for a relatively warm and dry season ahead thanks to La Niña, according to the National Weather Service.

Forecaster Larry Hopper lays out the details in a webinar posted Oct. 13. The weather service put a 70 percent chance of a weak La Niña lasting through the fall, with a 55 percent chance of one in the winter.

Hopper’s 18-minute presentation has the kind of detail that weather geeks should appreciate, but he lays things out clearly enough for a weather layperson to follow. A La Niña is a weather pattern heavily influenced by surface temperatures in the Pacific. It is basically the bizarro twin of El Niño, the pattern largely responsible for the heavy rainfall last year and earlier this year.

Unlike the unusually strong El Niño – dubbed the Godzilla El Niño – this La Niña appears to be a weak one. Hopper’s presentation is nuanced and like, all long-term forecasts, includes necessary caveats. (He’s offering a forecast, not pretending he’s been sent back in time by your future self to advise you on stock purchases.) But generally speaking, Hopper said, people should probably expect a mild fall and possibly winter, rather than one significantly hotter than usual. Flash floods remain a risk, as they usually are this time of year, and wildfires are also possible, though the ground is wet enough to mitigate the worst risks.

It’s also worth watching because Hopper explains some of the climatological phenomena at work beyond La Niña and provides a window into how forecasters weave them together into the overall forecast.

Courtesy Texas A&M

Being sick sucks. As do allergies — especially when the rains have caused mold levels to skyrocket. But sometimes it’s hard to tell the difference.

So, with mold high and flu season here, how do you know whether you’re sick or have allergies? Allergies, common colds and the flu have similar symptoms but are treated differently. The Texas A&M College of Nursing has tips:

• Start with full body aches. Itchy eyes, a runny nose or congestion could be allergies, a cold or the flu. But if you’ve got deep aches in your legs, back or other large muscles, it’s probably the flu. Likewise, extreme fever and severe exhaustion probably mean the flu.
• Do you have a fever? Then it’s not allergies. (Cedar fever is a colloquialism that does not bring on an actual fever.) If there is no major muscle soreness, extreme fever (more than 101 degrees) or severe exhaustion, it’s probably a cold. A cold does have a variety of symptoms, including: mild fatigue, fever, cough, a sore throat, congestion/runny nose/sneezing, watery eyes/nose, head/chest/nasal congestion
• If it’s just coughing, itchy eyes, congestion and/or sneezing, without any of the above symptoms, it’s probably allergies. Doesn’t matter if you haven’t had allergies before. You can develop them anytime in life.

In all cases, staying hydrated helps. A cold should heal on its own in a few days, provided you get some rest. The flu probably warrants a trip to the doctor, according to the A&M experts. Nasal rinsing can help with allergies. But if it’s cedar fever, don’t expect miracles. Life is probably going to be miserable.

Photo by Ralph Barrera

This winter could be a particularly nasty season for cedar fever.

Central Texas is coming off a year of rainy weather, which helps the vegetation but also means ash juniper (aka mountain cedar) is robust. That means everyone should soon expect those nasty “smoke” clouds that rise when cold fronts blow in.

One in five Central Texans suffer from cedar fever, according to experts from Baylor Scott & White Health. Those new to Central Texas, beware: You may be susceptible to cedar fever and not know it. If you do have an allergy, you’ll know it soon. Even people who have lived here for years without symptoms can suddenly develop them.

Cedar fever can feel like a cold or flu. The Texas A&M College of Medicine recently published a guide to identifying whether you’ve got allergies, a cold or the flu; the easiest way to tell if cedar fever is the cause is particularly itchy eyes and bad coughing without deep muscle aches or a fever.

Cedar fever is a colloquialism and the allergy does not actually bring on a fever. Breathing can be difficult, though.

“You can’t function well if you can’t breathe,” said Dr. Goddy Corpuz, a pediatrician at Baylor Scott & White’s Cedar Park Clinic who often sees patients with bad allergies.

Cedar fever season tends to last from the start of December until March, though it has been known to persist into May. Those looking for treatment should fire up the DeLorean, find a nice flat stretch of country road on which to get it up to 88 mph and travel back to somewhere between six months and a year ago. That was the best time to start building up an immunity through steps such as allergy shots. Failing that, over-the-counter allergy medications can help, as can nasal rinsing.

For some, that will not be enough. Allergists can check for allergies through both the traditional skin tests and blood work.

“If a patient knows they have a history of sensitivity to cedar, we need to get them treated early, in some cases with allergy shots – the earlier the better,” said Dr. Rachel Osborne, a pediatrician at Baylor Scott & White Clinic-Georgetown Central. “If we can nip it in the bud before the season starts, we can keep things manageable throughout the season. But if you come in when you’re suffering at the peak of cedar season, then we won’t be able to do quite as much to help you.”

Those who have not had a flu shot probably should get one, to avoid contracting both the flu and cedar fever, Corpuz said.

Conventional meteorological wisdom — based on generally understood climate science — suggests Central Texas is in for a winter that is hotter and drier than normal. That is usually what happens when a La Niña settles in and surface temperatures at the equatorial Pacific are cooler than average.

Jim Spencer

The KXAN weather team has another take on the situation, however.

Chief meteorologist Jim Spencer said a closer look at Central Texas data yielded another possibility. Meteorologist David Yeomans looked at three decades worth of data in search of “some analog years to justify this forecast,” Spencer said. Yeomans found that weak La Ninas, such as this one, actually have delivered cooler-and-wetter-than-normal conditions to Central Texas. And more days of snow and ice than usual.

David Yeomans

This is the point at which readers should keep in mind that a forecast is not a prediction; Spencer, as insightful as he is, has not traveled back in time with the technology to fight SkyNet, defeat Nazis or give iron-clad stock tips. But, he said, the odds of a cold winter and snow days are higher than generally acknowledged — particularly the odds of ice and snow.

“The official projections may prove to be accurate, but we have reason to believe it might actually be a colder winter than people are expecting,” Spencer told the American-Statesman. “Of course, here, a trace of freezing drizzle or snow flurries are considered a winter storm!”

A Union Pacific train derailed early Monday on U.S. 79 north of Thrall. Severe thunderstorms and high winds may have caused the multiple cars to derail. Railroad crews will be on the scene throughout the day to remove the damaged cars. RALPH BARRERA/AMERICAN-STATESMAN

The storms that blew through late Sunday into Monday morning were yet another example of how spring has probably arrived in Central Texas — which could be a mixed blessing.

Storms like the one that probably woke you up last night are unusual for this time of year, said Troy Kimmel, a University of Texas meteorologist and instructor. Storm season typically starts weeks from now in spring, which arrives March 20, according to the astronomical calendar. But last night’s storm seems to be the clincher in the theory to which thermometers have been attesting: Winter has already come and gone in Central Texas.

“It looks like winter is over,” Kimmel said. “These temperatures are what we expect to see a month down the road.”

This week’s forecast bolsters that notion. The National Weather Service expects clear skies as high temperatures rise into the mid-80s by Thursday and remain in the 70s at least through Saturday. The last freeze was in early January. Of the 50 days since 2017 started, 35 have topped 70 degrees at Camp Mabry. Monday, whose daytime high should be in the mid-70s, will be nearly 10 degrees warmer than the norm of 66 degrees and much higher than the average temperature, which is skewed by a few unusually cold days in the past, of 56 degrees.

So break out the flip-flops, but be prepared to pull the trash can out of the road after middle-of-the-night storms.

And be prepared for downpours.

Forecasting an entire season is notoriously tricky — as a wise man once noted, predictions are difficult, especially about the future — and Central Texas just went through the kind of La Niña season that is typically drier than normal. The La Niña brought a slightly drier winter, said Bob Rose, a Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist, but the La Niña also ended early this month.

Monday morning’s storm was surprising in part because the moisture level in the atmosphere suggested something a less intense, Kimmel said. But the atmospheric instability from the system that came out of the Pacific — a particularly “dynamic” system, Kimmel said — was like a hot pepper that gave a pot of chili an extra kick. One result was storm damage across Central Texas, mainly from straight-line winds. The Weather Service has confirmed tornado damage in San Antonio and is investigating potential tornado damage in Williamson County.

“If we have system like this one a month or two down the road, we could have some very severe weather,” Kimmel said. He added: “Our severe season seems to already be here.”

Photo by Brenda Jackson, courtesy Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center

Bluebonnets are already beginning to bloom, more than a month ahead of the typical April flowering season. As are the purple spiderworts near Lake Austin. And they will probably be joined shortly by many other Central Texas wildflowers.

The relatively rainy 2016 and warm winter have triggered an early wildflower season, according to experts at the Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center.

“Wildflower season is taking off faster than you expect,” said Andrea DeLong-Amaya, the Wildflower Center’s director of horticulture.

For more of Marty Toohey’s science and weather stories, follow him on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram

The wildflowers are yet another example of winter seeming to have come and gone (before February is over!). The wildflowers could be killed if a cold snap blows through and drops temperatures near freezing.

But some forecasters say that possibility is increasingly unlikely. The last freeze was in early January. Of the 50 days since 2017 started, 35 have topped 70 degrees at Camp Mabry. Monday, whose daytime high should be in the mid-70s, will be nearly 10 degrees warmer than the norm of 66 degrees. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s three-month forecast also predicts warmer than average weather for Central Texas.

Courtesy Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center

According to a Wildflower Center release, pink evening primrose — aka buttercups — could be in for a big year, after having bloomed inconsistently during the past several years, “sometimes sparsely dotting roadsides and other times strikingly dominating great patches from the airport through the Hill Country.”

“Other plants just beginning to put on a preseason show include elbow bush (Forestiera pubescens), golden groundsel (Packera obovata) and agarita (Mahonia trifoliolata),” according to the release. It also noted that redbuds beginning to produce pink overhead blossoms.

Courtesy Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center

Travis Ramos of Bastrop paddleboards on Barton Creek during unseasonable warm weather in the low 70s on Saturday December 17, 2016. “It’s a pleasant surprise in the middle of winter,” Ramos said. JAY JANNER / AMERICAN-STATESMAN

“The perception this February’s weather has been unusually mild is quite accurate,” said Bob Rose, a meteorologist with the Lower Colorado River Authority, who has put our suspicions into numbers.

From Feb. 1 through Feb. 20, the average temperature at Camp Mabry is 9.3 degrees above normal, according to Rose. That’s the fourth-warmest Camp Mabry ever has been over that part of the year, according to records going back to the 1930s. At Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, the average temperature has been 11.9 degrees above normal — the second-warmest on record.

Stretch that out to the entire winter to date (which includes December), and the rankings stay the same. Camp Mabry is experiencing the fourth-warmest winter on record. The airport is going through its second-warmest winter on record, Rose said.

Texas had been in a La Niña since fall, which tends to mean weather that’s hotter and drier than normal. But the Highland Lakes, Central Texas’ main source of water, remain full. The National Weather Service declared an end to La Niña in early February, and with its end, “The chance for drought in Central Texas this spring and summer appears low,” Rose said.

Still, Central Texas will be heading into spring following one of the warmest winters in history.

“With no real cold weather expected over the next week, I don’t expect (the historic) rankings to change much by month’s end,” Rose said. “We are definitely on pace for one of the warmest, if not the warmest February on record.”

Austin just experienced the warmest winter on record.

Photo by Jay Janner

As the 26 days of 80-degree-plus temperatures and already blooming wildflowers can attest, this winter – which ended Tuesday for meteorologists (but not for astronomers, who are waiting for the spring equinox later this month) – was freakishly warm. The average temperature at Austin’s Camp Mabry, 58.6 degrees, was nearly a full degree higher than the next-warmest winter season, the winter of 1999-2000.

In only one previous year were freezing temperatures banished earlier than this winter. Though no formal data on footwear was readily available, this winter appears to have seen the most widespread use of flips-flops in memory, experts say.

“We’ve just really had no winter,” said Troy Kimmel, a University of Texas meteorologist and instructor. “We saw winter on the calendar, but we didn’t see it in real life.”

Perhaps this will lend perspective: the 26 days at or above 80 degrees this winter at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport smashes the previous record of 16, according to the National Weather Service.

At Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, this winter was the second-warmest on record, according to the weather service. Kimmel adds this caveat, though: It’s more difficult to draw historical conclusions from the airport’s data because it kept its historical records slightly differently until the mid-1990s, when it became a civilian facility.

The warmest winter on record ended with the warmest February on record at Camp Mabry. The average temperature was 9.1 degrees higher than the month’s historical average at Camp Mabry, according to weather service data. This February’s average temperature was 64.5 degrees – remember, that’s not the average high, that’s the average across the entire day – and was more than 2 degrees higher than the next-warmest, in February 1999.

This was also the warmest winter in many parts of Texas, including Houston. That city finished with 22 days above 80 degrees – meaning a quarter of winter was above 80 degrees, Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza said.

To commemorate winter’s end, Lanza Tweeted out a picture of a tombstone rendered in the pixilated style of the old Oregon Trail computer game, bearing the inscription: “Here lies winter 2016-17, tried to ford the atmospheric river and lost.”

Photo by Ralph Barrera

What should Texans make of this freakishly warm winter that just ended – particularly those worried about global climate change?

The winter was the warmest on record in Central Texas. It also was unusually warm in many other parts of the country. A recent Washington Post blog entry gave an impassioned plea for people to not feel guilty about enjoying such weather in places where winter was mild.

Maybe the lesson, as the Post blog argued, is that climate change could be a mixed bag — a conclusions with which Texas climate experts agree.

By itself, the winter was not proof of global climate change. But the winter temperatures were in line with what climate scientists say Texas will probably experience over the coming decades, University of Texas climate scientist Kerry Cook said.

Cook, asked by the American-Statesman to put this winter into a climate-change context, said it will probably happen more often. Climate models show the average winter temperature in Texas rising by 2 degrees by 2050 (with summer rising by nearly 4 degrees). Temperatures will still vary from year to year, of course; some years will be unusually hot, some unusually cold, some unremarkable.

But a warmer climate is a more energetic climate, with more extremes: more extremely pleasant winters, more extremely hot summers, even more extremely hot days. (The best climate models show the number of 100-degree days in an average Central Texas year doubling by 2050, from 13 now to 26.)

Another thought to keep in mind as you enjoy spring-like weather that people in Boston, Minneapolis and Seattle would envy, were they not too busy trying to keep warm: Central Texas is probably in for other kinds of extreme weather. The average summer rainfall totals are expected to drop 10 percent to 15 percent between now and 2050. And slow soaking rainfall will probably become less common, according to the climate models, while deluges – the kind that tend to produce flooding – will probably become more common.

Even so, people should not think of this winter as a gift that Central Texans will soon have to pay for. A warm winter does not mean a hellish summer is particularly likely, as there is “very little correlation” between winter and summer temperatures, state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon told the American-Statesman.

The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang also sought to assuage misgivings about the warm winter in its blog post. It argued that “feeling sad about it, while well-intended, is not necessary,” adding that the occasional “warm winter days are fortunate aspects of our climate, and their increase is one of few positive effects of climate change.”

The Post’s post also noted a New York Times piece about warm weather helping peoples’ mental well-being, as well as highlighting a study in Nature that found that “virtually all Americans are now experiencing the much milder winters they prefer.”

Even Katharine Hayhoe, the Texas Tech University climate scientist who has warned Austin of more extreme weather to come, told The Atlantic recently that people should enjoy the upside of climate change because enjoying it “doesn’t make it any better or worse than it would be otherwise.”

Perhaps this is the time to double down on one of the popular climate-change metaphors. A warmer planet may be a mixed bag – but even a mixed bag could hold more bad things than good. So for now, enjoy the early arrival of the bluebonnets.

Photo by Ralph Barrera

This past winter was the warmest on record in Austin, a remarkable period during which more than a quarter of the days at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport topped 80 degrees. (!!!) Such an unusual winter was lovely but, in the context of global climate change, naturally raised the question of what to make of it.

A recent study suggests Democrats and Republicans see such weather quite differently – and that such weather tends to make them double down on their natural inclination to accept or reject climate science.

The study, “Is it hot in here or is it just me? Temperature anomalies and political polarization over global warming in the American public,” found that “political polarization over global warming is more pronounced in states experiencing temperature anomalies.” The study was conducted in 2013-14, so it doesn’t take this winter into account. And some findings will not exactly surprise Texans.

Yes, the research confirmed, conservatives are generally leery of climate science, liberals generally accepting its conclusions – and it may all be the media’s fault.

Researcher Jeremiah Bohr of the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh did unearth some potentially interesting findings, though. Chiefly, unusually hot or cold weather intensifies one’s predisposition toward climate science: “Republicans are less likely to conform to the scientific consensus on global warming during very cold or very warm periods while Democrats display the opposite trend.”

Bohr also found that, among Republicans, skepticism of climate science is a uniting force that grows stronger as the temperature diverges from the norm. In a typical year, moderate Republicans tend to be less inclined to reject climate science than their tea party peers. But during unusual weather, warm or cold, the views of the center-right and the right converge. (Perhaps it could even bring House Speaker Joe Strauss and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick together.)

Per Bohr: “… we see that both kinds of Republicans converge in their global warming beliefs during extreme temperature anomalies but diverge during more seasonable temperature conditions.”

Bohr also found that media framing could feed the political hardening of opinion during weirdly warm or cold seasons. During those seasons, climate science tends to get more coverage. (Hi, everybody!) And the coverage, Bohr wrote, tends to be filtered through the lens of how liberal or conservative an outlet is, “discount(ing) or affirm(ing) temperature anomaly as an indication of global warming.”

“This,” Bohr continues, “could plausibly explain why disagreement between Democrats and Republicans widens during periods of greater temperature anomaly, as Democrats are likely exposed to greater amounts of opinion within the scientific mainstream while Republicans are likely exposed to disproportionate amounts of climate contrarian messages.”

(Commence jabs at CNN, Fox News and MSNBC in 3, 2, 1 … and now, on to the American-Statesman in 3, 2, 1 … can someone lend me a very tiny violin?)

For what it’s worth: Climate scientists say that seasons like this past winter are not, in and of themselves, proof that the planet is warming and that man is contributing to that warming. But state Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said this winter’s temperatures are in line with a long-term warming that Texas has been experiencing since the 1970s, a time Nielsen-Gammon said was unusually cool. University of Texas climate researcher Kerry Cook told the American-Statesman that this winter was also the kind of winter Central Texans can expect more of – along with more extremely hot days, drought and sudden deluges.

The comments section is now open for business. Y’all have fun.

Spring will finally be here – by every way of measuring its arrival.

Monday is the vernal equinox, the starting point of spring, as determined by people who base their seasons on the Earth’s position relative to the sun and stars. (Or, more generally, who base their calendar on the sky.)

On Monday, at 5:38 a.m., the sun will be positioned such that it shines directly on the equator. The northern and southern hemispheres will receive exactly the same amount of the sun’s rays. Night and day will be almost equal length. This is an important milestone if you’re into traditional calendars or pagan rituals.

Why is Monday important?

In many parts of the ancient world, four important dates delineated the seasons: the summer solstice (when spring gives way to summer), the autumnal equinox (when summer gives way to fall), the winter solstice (fall to winter) and vernal equinox (winter to spring). These have been important markers on mankind’s journey through time. In the olden days, before our iPhones told us everything, the solstices and equinoxes helped people to know things like when to plant crops or bust out the short pantaloons.

So, um, why are those particular dates important? Why do they separate the seasons?

On just two days a year – the equinoxes – the sun is exactly above the equator. That was a reliable way to mark spring and fall. And for only twice a year –the solstices – the sun hits a maximum high or minimum low point in the noon sky. These were also also deemed a reliable way to mark seasonal transitions.

Why are there only two days when the sun in directly above the equator?

The Earth’s equator is on a tilted axis relative to the sun — the axis is actually tilted 23.5 degrees. That means that as the Earth rotates around the sun, its northern and southern hemispheres trade places in receiving more light from the sun. At the equinoxes, the axis is neither inclined toward nor away from the sun.

Why do they call today the vernal equinox?

No idea. Next question.

No, seriously – there has to be good reason to call it the vernal equinox, right?

You sure about that? #Fakenews! (Googling … Googling …) OK, according to Merriam-Webster, vernal is a derivation of the Latin term for “of spring.”

The term equinox has something to do with Latin, right?

Correct. “Equinox” is derived from the Latin term aequinoctium, which combines equal (aequus) and night (nox).

But day and night won’t be exactly the same length today, will they?

Already covered that. No, day and night will not be exactly the same length. There is another designation, equilux, sometimes used to refer to a day when the amount of light and dark are equal, a day when the Force is in proper balance. (Okay, Disney would never allow the Force to achieve proper balance because that would make for a boring movie and, c’mon, there is no way Jar Jar Binks could be a Sith lord.)

So spring starts with the equinox? But didn’t spring start awhile back?

Yes. Kind of. We’ve had spring-like weather for much of the last few months, what with this winter being the warmest on record in Central Texas and all. So it’s felt like spring almost all winter along. We also had wildflowers blooming – a harbinger of spring – back in February.

But didn’t spring arrive March 1?

That also happened. March 1 was “meteorological spring.” Meteorologists prefer a calendar in which the seasons start on the same days every year. It helps for record keeping, among other reasons. But the Earth, sun and stars do not quite conform to the western calendar — thus the vernal equinox does not fall on the same day every year. The vernal equinox follows celestial trends, at the expense of syncing precisely with the western calendar. That’s why the vernal equinox is often said to usher in “astronomical spring.”

(Side note: commentators mean something different when they say Tony Romo’s salary is “astronomical.”)

Musician Woode Wood greets joggers on the Butler HIke-and-Bike Trail in Zilker Park on Monday, when temperatures set a record high of 90 degrees. Photo by Ralph Barrera/American-Statesman

Earlier this year, when it was becoming apparent that Central Texas was experiencing its warmest winter on record, meteorologists gave a note of solace. The good news is, they said, is that there is little correlation between how hot winter gets and how hot summer will be.

Bob Rose is ready to take some of the good out of that news.

In a video blog entry titled “Will we see 100 degrees by April?”, the Lower Colorado River Authority meteorologist says that the warmer-than-normal temperatures will likely continue into at least early summer. On Tuesday, for instance, the temperature will probably come up just shy of 90 degrees. In February, more than half the days surpassed 80 degrees (!!!), he said, and this March was the warmest March on record at Austin’s main weather station, Camp Mabry — making the first quarter of this year the warmest three months to start a year on record.

Weather patterns shaped by the jet stream appear likely to continue “one of the warmest starts to spring on record,” Rose said.

“The big message about spring and early summer is that temperatures will be much warmer than normal,” he said.

To answer the question posed by the title of Bob Rose’s blog, which was published in late March: No, 100-degree temperatures have not arrived in Central Texas yet. They appear to still be a ways off.

But, Rose said, with long-term temperatures seeming likely to run at least 2 degrees to 3 degrees warmer than average, “Unfortunately, 90-degree temperatures aren’t that far away.”

Camp Mabry set a temperature record on Monday when it hit 90 degrees.

This hurricane season is likely to be a relatively calm one, thanks to the return of everyone’s favorite weather pattern: El Niño.

Forecasters with AccuWeather are predicting 10 named storms, with five projected to become hurricanes. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms.

“The big factor is going to be the fact that we now believe El Niño will come on board some time during the summer and will continue all the way through the rest of the hurricane season,” AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said in a statement this week.

Other hurricane projections are set to follow soon: one from Colorado State University, the other from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration some time in May.

According to AccuWeather, an El Niño – a weather phenomenon that includes warmer-than-normal surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific – “typically causes episodes of strong westerly winds in the tropical Atlantic, which inhibit the development of storms.”

AccuWeather is forecasting that the El Niño is likely to materialize in late summer or fall. In Central Texas, that would probably mean cooler and wetter weather. El Niño is not the only weather pattern to affect Central Texas, but it does tend to make things a bit rainier.

In 2015, the “Godzilla El Niño” that developed in the fall drove the second-wettest year on record. That El Niño gave way to a La Niña, which is basically El Niño’s bizarro twin – cooler equatorial Pacific waters resulting in warmer and drier Central Texas weather. Even as La Niña was fading, it ushered in the warmest winter and warmest three-month start to a year on record in Austin.

Don’t expect El Niño to cool things down much in the near future. But if it does materialize, and it does wrestle hurricane season to a standstill, expect to see a lot more of this:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkSRUf02gu8&w=640&h=390]