Gorgeous weather in Austin on Tuesday; how the weekend rains broke a ‘flash drought’

Tuesday forecast for Austin: Sunny with a high near 82; clear skies at night with a low near 59.

A cooling trend begins later this week as an upper-level trough, or area of low pressure, passes through Central Texas along with a cold front that will push daily highs down to the 70s.

The rise and fall and rise of El Niño weather

Good morning, Austin! The forecasts this week call for sunny skies and highs in the 80s, but let’s talk about something else: El Niño.

Or, as some have dubbed it, the “Godzilla El Niño.” This winter, the world will experience, according to some forecasts, the third-strongest El Niño in recorded history. It should last through March, and possibly into April, according to Bob Rose, a meteorologist with the Lower Colorado River Authority.

It will also part of a larger, multi-seasonal Austin weather pattern I’m tentatively dubbing El Yo-Yo.

Flash back to early this year: Central Texas was still in the middle of one of the hardest droughts on record. Then came the wet season, one brought on by an El Niño (a cyclical warming of the eastern Pacific that historically has resulted in heavier rainfall in Central Texas). That spring rainfall erased the drought conditions throughout Texas and replenished the region’s main water supply, lakes Travis and Buchanan, which rose from about one-third full to nearly three-quarters full. That wet season also brought spring floods that submerged sections of downtown Austin and devastated other areas, including parts of Hays County. The rainfall put the Austin area on pace for one of the wettest years in recent memory, Rose said.

Then we hit July. The rains all but stopped. The period of July 1 through mid-October saw the fourth-lowest rainfall on record for that time of year, Rose said. Much of Central Texas returned to severe drought; exceptional drought was declared along the eastern edge of Williamson County. In September, inflows into Travis and Buchanan were 4 percent of the historical average. The 99 degree-temperature measured on October 12 was the highest ever recorded for that date.

Rose called this period a “flash drought.”

The weekend’s rains appear to have broken it, Rose said. And with another round of El Niño-inspired rains looming, we’re in for a cloudy, rainy winter and spring, with below-average temperatures. That’s good news for the lakes and the soil; it’s not good if you hate rain boots. It’s also bad news for some parts of the country, such as California. (Tokyo might be in trouble, too.)

But a strong El Niño portends nothing particularly troubling for Central Texas, Rose said. This region may be nicknamed Flash Flood Alley, but historically speaking, the few El Niños that approached the intensity of Godzilla El Niño one have not caused flooding, he said.

“Most of the (flooding has) been displaced away from Texas,” Rose said.

To sum up: very strong El Niño, higher than average rainfall, but odds of flooding no higher than in most years.

Also: Because I think there’s some El Niño-related law requiring it, I feel compelled to acknowledge this:

No? Nothing? Okay, then. In honor of what El Niño is likely to bring us, I’ll wrap up with this rain-related quip courtesy of The Weather Network:

Q: What’s worse than raining buckets?

A: Hailing taxis.